Coalescent dynamics of planktonic communities

TL;DR

This paper introduces a spatial coalescence model incorporating oceanic currents to efficiently study planktonic community diversity, especially rare species, offering a computationally feasible alternative to individual-based models.

Contribution

The paper presents a novel coalescent modeling approach that simulates planktonic diversity efficiently by focusing on sample size rather than entire community size.

Findings

Coalescent model is equivalent to individual-based dynamics under certain conditions.

Chaotic advection by currents impacts biodiversity predictions.

Model significantly reduces computational complexity for microbial community simulations.

Abstract

Planktonic communities are extremely diverse and include a vast number of rare species. The dynamics of these rare species is best described by individual-based models. However, individual-based approaches to planktonic diversity face substantial difficulties, due to the large number of individuals required to make realistic predictions. In this paper, we study diversity of planktonic communities by means of a spatial coalescence model, that incorporates transport by oceanic currents. As a main advantage, our approach requires simulating a number of individuals equal to the size of the sample one is interested in, rather than the size of the entire community. By theoretical analysis and simulations, we explore the conditions upon which our coalescence model is equivalent to individual-based dynamics. As an application, we use our model to predict the impact of chaotic advection by oceanic currents on biodiversity. We conclude that the coalescent approach permits to simulate marine microbial communities much more efficiently than with individual-based models.