Mantle Degassing Lifetimes through Galactic Time and the Maximum Age Stagnant-lid Rocky Exoplanets can Support Temperate Climates

TL;DR

This study models the longevity of habitable climates on rocky exoplanets by analyzing their internal heat sources over galactic time, considering radioactive decay and planetary characteristics.

Contribution

It introduces a probabilistic framework combining stellar abundance data and galactic chemical evolution to estimate exoplanet mantle degassing lifetimes.

Findings

7 out of 17 exoplanets likely support active degassing today.

Most planets cannot sustain a temperate climate without additional heating.

Galactic chemical evolution impacts exoplanet habitability over time.

Abstract

The ideal exoplanets to search for life are those within a star's habitable zone. However, even within the habitable zone planets can still develop uninhabitable climate states. Sustaining a temperate climate over geologic ($\sim$Gyr) timescales requires a planet contain sufficient internal energy to power a planetary-scale carbon cycle. A major component of a rocky planet's energy budget is the heat produced by the decay of radioactive elements, especially $^{40}$K, $^{232}$Th, $^{235}$U and $^{238}$U. As the planet ages and these elements decay, this radiogenic energy source dwindles. Here we estimate the probability distribution of the amount of these heat producing elements (HPEs) that enter into rocky exoplanets through Galactic history, by combining the system-to-system variation seen in stellar abundance data with the results from Galactic chemical evolution models. Using these distributions, we perform Monte-Carlo thermal evolution models that maximize the mantle cooling rate. This allows us to create a pessimistic estimate of lifetime a rocky, stagnant-lid exoplanet can support a global carbon cycle and temperate climate as a function of its mass and when it in Galactic history. We apply this framework to a sample of 17 likely rocky exoplanets with measured ages, 7 of which we predict are likely to be actively degassing today despite our pessimistic assumptions. For the remaining planets, including those orbiting TRAPPIST-1, we cannot confidently assume they currently contain sufficient internal heat to support mantle degassing at a rate sufficient to sustain a global carbon cycle or temperate climate without additional tidal heating or undergoing plate tectonics.