Multimodal Quasi-AutoRegression: Forecasting the visual popularity of new fashion products

TL;DR

This paper introduces MuQAR, a deep learning model that predicts the visual popularity of new fashion products by combining multimodal features and quasi-autoregressive time series modeling, addressing data scarcity and trend detection.

Contribution

The paper presents MuQAR, a novel multimodal quasi-autoregressive architecture that effectively forecasts fashion product popularity using visual, textual, and categorical data without requiring historical popularity data.

Findings

MuQAR outperforms current state-of-the-art methods by 4.65% in WAPE.

The model achieves a 4.8% improvement in MAE on the VISUELLE dataset.

Extensive ablation confirms the effectiveness of multimodal and quasi-autoregressive components.

Abstract

Estimating the preferences of consumers is of utmost importance for the fashion industry as appropriately leveraging this information can be beneficial in terms of profit. Trend detection in fashion is a challenging task due to the fast pace of change in the fashion industry. Moreover, forecasting the visual popularity of new garment designs is even more demanding due to lack of historical data. To this end, we propose MuQAR, a Multimodal Quasi-AutoRegressive deep learning architecture that combines two modules: (1) a multi-modal multi-layer perceptron processing categorical, visual and textual features of the product and (2) a quasi-autoregressive neural network modelling the "target" time series of the product's attributes along with the "exogenous" time series of all other attributes. We utilize computer vision, image classification and image captioning, for automatically extracting visual features and textual descriptions from the images of new products. Product design in fashion is initially expressed visually and these features represent the products' unique characteristics without interfering with the creative process of its designers by requiring additional inputs (e.g manually written texts). We employ the product's target attributes time series as a proxy of temporal popularity patterns, mitigating the lack of historical data, while exogenous time series help capture trends among interrelated attributes. We perform an extensive ablation analysis on two large scale image fashion datasets, Mallzee and SHIFT15m to assess the adequacy of MuQAR and also use the Amazon Reviews: Home and Kitchen dataset to assess generalisability to other domains. A comparative study on the VISUELLE dataset, shows that MuQAR is capable of competing and surpassing the domain's current state of the art by 4.65% and 4.8% in terms of WAPE and MAE respectively.