Stochastic Chaos and Predictability in Laboratory Earthquakes

TL;DR

This paper investigates how stochastic effects and nonlinear friction influence the unpredictability of laboratory earthquakes, revealing that small perturbations can lead to aperiodic behavior and reduced predictability.

Contribution

It introduces a stochastic differential equation model based on rate and state-dependent friction to explain laboratory earthquake dynamics and their transition to aperiodic behavior.

Findings

Small perturbations cause a transition from stable sliding to stick-slip events.

Nonlinear friction amplifies small perturbations, reducing predictability.

Laboratory earthquake dynamics resemble natural slow earthquakes in complexity.

Abstract

Laboratory earthquakes exhibit characteristics of a low dimensional random attractor with a dimension similar to that of natural slow earthquakes. A model of stochastic differential equations based on rate and state-dependent friction explains the laboratory observations. We study the transition from stable sliding to stickslip events and find that aperiodic behavior can be explained by small perturbations in the stress state. Friction's nonlinear nature amplifies small scale perturbations, reducing the predictability of the otherwise periodic macroscopic dynamics.