Evolution of global development cooperation: An analysis of aid flows with hierarchical stochastic block models

TL;DR

This study analyzes the long-term evolution of global development aid networks from 1970 to 2013 using hierarchical stochastic block models, revealing persistent structures despite diversification and expansion.

Contribution

It introduces a novel application of hierarchical stochastic block models to analyze the evolving global aid network structure over four decades.

Findings

Persistent aid network structures despite diversification

Major donors and well-connected recipients dominate aid flows

Recurrent aid reforms have limited impact on global aid patterns

Abstract

Despite considerable scholarly attention on the institutional and normative aspects of development cooperation, its longitudinal dynamics unfolding at the global level have rarely been investigated. Focusing on aid, we examine the evolving global structure of development cooperation induced by aid flows in its entirety. Representing annual aid flows between donors and recipients from 1970 to 2013 as a series of networks, we apply hierarchical stochastic block models to extensive aid-flow data that cover not only the aid behavior of the major OECD donors but also that of other emerging donors, including China. Despite a considerable degree of external expansion and internal diversification of aid relations over the years, the analysis has uncovered a temporally persistent structure of aid networks. The latter comprises, on the one hand, a limited number of major donors with far-reaching resources and, on the other hand, a large number of mostly poor but globally well-connected recipients. The results cast doubt on the efficacy of recurrent efforts for "aid reform" in substantially changing the global aid flow pattern.