Deep surrogate accelerated delayed-acceptance HMC for Bayesian inference of spatio-temporal heat fluxes in rotating disc systems

TL;DR

This paper presents a deep learning accelerated Bayesian inference method for PDE-based inverse problems, providing guaranteed accuracy and efficient sampling in high-dimensional settings, demonstrated on heat flux estimation in rotating discs.

Contribution

The authors develop a novel adaptive training scheme for neural surrogates that jointly approximates forward and inverse problems with guaranteed posterior convergence.

Findings

Achieves fast mixing in high dimensions

Provides mathematical guarantees on posterior accuracy

Reduces computational cost by avoiding unnecessary PDE solves

Abstract

We introduce a deep learning accelerated methodology to solve PDE-based Bayesian inverse problems with guaranteed accuracy. This is motivated by the ill-posed problem of inferring a spatio-temporal heat-flux parameter known as the Biot number given temperature data, however the methodology is generalisable to other settings. To accelerate Bayesian inference, we develop a novel training scheme that uses data to adaptively train a neural-network surrogate simulating the parametric forward model. By simultaneously identifying an approximate posterior distribution over the Biot number, and weighting a physics-informed training loss according to this, our approach approximates forward and inverse solution together without any need for external solves. Using a random Chebyshev series, we outline how to approximate a Gaussian process prior, and using the surrogate we apply Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) to sample from the posterior distribution. We derive convergence of the surrogate posterior to the true posterior distribution in the Hellinger metric as our adaptive loss approaches zero. Additionally, we describe how this surrogate-accelerated HMC approach can be combined with traditional PDE solvers in a delayed-acceptance scheme to a-priori control the posterior accuracy. This overcomes a major limitation of deep learning-based surrogate approaches, which do not achieve guaranteed accuracy a-priori due to their non-convex training. Biot number calculations are involved in turbo-machinery design, which is safety critical and highly regulated, therefore it is important that our results have such mathematical guarantees. Our approach achieves fast mixing in high dimensions whilst retaining the convergence guarantees of a traditional PDE solver, and without the burden of evaluating this solver for proposals that are likely to be rejected. Numerical results are given using real and simulated data.