Feasibility of nowcasting SDG indicators: a comprehensive survey

TL;DR

This paper assesses the feasibility of nowcasting SDG indicators to provide more timely progress estimates, through a comprehensive survey and a case study on indicator 9.4.1, highlighting potential and limitations.

Contribution

It conducts the first comprehensive feasibility survey of all SDG indicators for nowcasting and demonstrates the process with a detailed case study.

Findings

150 indicators are highly suitable for nowcasting

87 indicators are likely suitable for nowcasting

125 indicators are unsuitable for nowcasting

Abstract

The 2030 Agenda and accompanying Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are vital in guiding national and global policy. However, many of the SDG indicators used to measure progress toward those goals suffer from long publication lags. Nowcasting has the potential to address this problem and generate more timely estimates of those indicators. This paper provides resources for achieving that potential by 1) carrying out a comprehensive nowcasting feasibility survey of all SDG indicators to assess their potential to be nowcast, and 2) performing a case study of indicator 9.4.1 to illustrate and shed light on the process of performing a nowcasting exercise. There exist 231 SDG indicators, but due to only examining Tier 1 indicators and the fact that many indicators have multiple sub-indicators, 362 indicators and sub-indicators were eventually surveyed. Of those 362, 150 were found highly likely to be suitable candidates for nowcasting, 87 were found to be likely, and 125 were found to be unsuitable.