From Pandemic to a New Normal: Strategies to Optimise Governmental Interventions in Indonesia Based on an SVEIQHR-Type Mathematical Model

TL;DR

This paper develops a mathematical model to optimize COVID-19 interventions in Indonesia, highlighting the importance of social restrictions and high-efficacy vaccines in different epidemic states.

Contribution

It introduces an SVEIQHR-type model incorporating intervention parameters and provides strategies for effective COVID-19 control in Indonesia.

Findings

Social restrictions are optimal during disease-free resurgence.

Vaccinations are best in endemic states if lockdowns are undesirable.

High-efficacy vaccines are more impactful than increasing vaccination rates.

Abstract

There are five different forms of intervention presently realised by the Indonesian government in an effort to end the COVID-19 pandemic: vaccinations, social restrictions, tracings, testings, and treatments. In this paper, we construct an SVEIQHR-type mathematical model for the disease's spread in the country, which incorporates as parameters the rates of the above interventions, as well as the vaccine's efficacy. We determine the model's equilibria and basic reproduction number. Using the model, we formulate strategies by which the interventions should be realised in order to optimise their impact. The results show that, in a disease-free state, when the number of new cases rises, the best strategy is to implement social restrictions, whereas in an endemic state, if a near-lockdown policy is undesirable, carrying out vaccinations is the best strategy; however, efforts should be aimed not primarily towards increasing the vaccination rate, but towards the use of high-efficacy vaccines.