Can we estimate the intensities of great geomagnetic storms($\Delta$SYM-H$\le -$200 nT) by Burton equation or by O'Brien and McPherron equation?

TL;DR

This study evaluates the effectiveness of Burton and O'Brien-McPherron equations in estimating the intensities of great geomagnetic storms, finding significant inaccuracies and highlighting the importance of solar wind dynamic pressure.

Contribution

The paper demonstrates that Burton and OM equations are ineffective for GGS intensity estimation and emphasizes the role of solar wind dynamic pressure, proposing a more accurate empirical approach.

Findings

OM equation significantly underestimates storm intensities.

RMS error for OM equation is 203 nT, indicating large deviations.

Burton equation has an RMS error of 130.8 nT, with larger errors for intense storms.

Abstract

We input solar wind parameters responsible for the main phases of 15 great geomagnetic storms (GGSs: $\Delta$SYM-H$\le-$200 nT) into the empirical formulae created by \cite{Burton1975}(hereafter Burton equation), and by \cite{OBrien2000}(hereafter OM equation) to evaluate whether \textbf{two equations} can correctly estimate the intensities of GGSs. The results show that the intensities of most GGSs estimated by OM equation are much smaller than the observed intensities. The RMS error between the intensities estimated by OM equation and the observed intensities is \textbf{203} nT, implying that the estimated storm intensity deviates significantly from the observed one. The RMS error between the intensities estimated by Burton equation and the observed intensities is 130.8 nT. The relative error caused by Burton equation for the storms with intensities $\Delta$SYM-H$<$-400 nT is larger than 27\%, implying that the absolute error will be large for the storms with $\Delta$SYM-H$<$-400 nT. The results indicate that the two equations cannot work effectively in the estimation of GGSs. On the contrary, the intensity of a GGS estimated by the empirical formula created by \cite{WangCB2003} can always be very close to the observed one if we select the right weight for solar wind dynamic pressure, proving that solar wind dynamic pressure is an important factor for GGS intensity, but it is overlooked in the ring current injection terms of Burton equation or OM equation. This is the reason why the two equations cannot work effectively in the estimation of GGSs.