Estimating SARS-CoV-2 transmission in educational settings: a retrospective cohort study

TL;DR

This study quantifies SARS-CoV-2 transmission in schools, revealing that students and staff significantly contribute to outbreaks, with household contacts being the primary source of infections, emphasizing the importance of controlling in-school spread.

Contribution

It provides detailed analysis of transmission dynamics in schools, highlighting the roles of students and staff, and quantifies the heterogeneity and impact of school-based transmission on overall spread.

Findings

Household contacts account for 55.1% of infections.

Students and staff are key drivers of transmission clusters.

High transmission heterogeneity, with 20% causing most spread.

Abstract

Background School closures and distance learning have been extensively applied to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Despite evidence of viral circulation in schools, the contribution of students and of in-person schooling to the transmission remains poorly quantified. Methods We analyze 976 exposure events, involving 460 positive individuals, as identified in early 2021 by routine surveillance and through an extensive screening conducted on students, school personnel, and their household members during an outbreak in a small municipality of Italy. Results From the analysis of potential transmission chains, we estimated that, on average, 55.1%, 17.3% and 27.6% infection episodes were linked to household, school, and community contacts, respectively. Clusters originated from students or school personnel showed a larger average cluster size (3.32 vs 1.15), a larger average number of generations in the transmission chain (1.56 vs 1.17) and a larger set of associated close contacts (11.3 vs 3.15, on average). We found substantial transmission heterogeneities, with 20% positive individuals seeding 75-80 of all transmission. A higher proportion of infected individuals causing onward transmission was found among students (48.8% vs 29.9%, on average), who also caused a markedly higher number of secondary cases (mean: 1.3 vs 0.5). Conclusions Uncontrolled transmission at school could disrupt the regular conduct of teaching activities, likely seeding the transmission into other settings, and increasing the burden on contact-tracing operations.