Evolution of the Dust Trail of Comet 17P/Holmes
Maria Gritsevich, Markku Nissinen, Arto Oksanen, Jari Suomela,, Elizabeth A. Silber

TL;DR
This paper presents a comprehensive Monte Carlo model of the dust trail evolution of comet 17P/Holmes following its 2007 outburst, accurately simulating particle dynamics and matching observations, including the first observed hourglass pattern.
Contribution
The study introduces a detailed dust trail evolution model incorporating gravitational and radiation effects, validated against observations, and predicts trail behavior for future ground-based detection.
Findings
Model accurately reproduces observed dust trail positions.
First observation of the hourglass pattern in the dust trail.
Predictions made for trail behavior near the outburst point in 2022.
Abstract
The massive outburst of the comet 17P/Holmes in October 2007 is the largest known outburst by a comet thus far. We present a new comprehensive model describing the evolution of the dust trail produced in this phenomenon. The model comprises of multiparticle Monte Carlo approach including the solar radiation pressure effects, gravitational disturbance caused by Venus, Earth and Moon, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn, and gravitational interaction of the dust particles with the parent comet itself. Good accuracy of computations is achieved by its implementation in Orekit, which executes Dormad-Prince numerical integration methods with higher precision. We demonstrate performance of the model by simulating particle populations with sizes from 0.001 mm to 1 mm with corresponding spherically symmetric ejection speed distribution, and towards the Sun outburst modelling. The model is supplemented with…
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