Eruptivity Criteria for Two-dimensional Magnetic Flux Ropes in the Solar Corona

TL;DR

This study uses a magneto-frictional model to identify key ratios of magnetic quantities that predict major solar eruptions, revealing limitations of the eruptivity index in certain configurations.

Contribution

It introduces a new approach to predict solar eruptions based on ratios of squared rope current to magnetic energy or helicity, and assesses the predictive skill of the eruptivity index.

Findings

Major eruptions are best predicted by thresholds in current-to-energy/helicity ratios.

The eruptivity index has limited predictive power in configurations with aligned background fields.

The study models flux ropes in decaying active regions, capturing different eruption types.

Abstract

We apply the magneto-frictional approach to investigate which quantity or quantities can best predict the loss of equilibrium of a translationally-invariant magnetic flux rope. The flux rope is produced self-consistently by flux cancellation combined with gradual footpoint shearing of a coronal arcade which is open at the outer boundary. This models the magnetic field in decaying active regions on the Sun. Such a model permits two types of eruption: episodic small events caused by shearing and relaxation of the overlying arcade, and major eruptions of the main low-lying coronal flux rope. Through a parameter study, we find that the major eruptions are best predicted not by individual quantities but by thresholds in the ratios of squared rope current to either magnetic energy or relative magnetic helicity. We show how to appropriately define the latter quantity for translationally-invariant magnetic fields, along with a related eruptivity index that has recently been introduced for three-dimensional magnetic fields. In contrast to previous configurations studied, we find that the eruptivity index has only a weak predictive skill, and in fact is lower prior to eruption, rather than higher. This is because the overlying background magnetic field has the same direction as the arcade itself. Thus we propose that there are a whole class of solar eruptions that cannot be predicted by a high eruptivity index.