Deterministic Conjunction Tracking in Long-term Space Debris Simulations

TL;DR

This paper introduces a deterministic long-term space debris simulation that accurately models conjunctions over decades, leveraging modern computational tools to improve validation and fidelity of debris environment predictions.

Contribution

It presents a novel deterministic conjunction tracking architecture capable of simulating decades of debris evolution with high accuracy and computational efficiency.

Findings

Successfully simulated 16,024 particles over 20 years.

Demonstrated the feasibility of deterministic conjunction tracking.

Analyzed runtime and computational costs in detail.

Abstract

Numerical simulations are at the center of predicting the space debris environment of the upcoming decades. In light of debris generating events, such as continued anti-satellite weapon tests and planned mega-constellations, accurate predictions of the space debris environment are critical to ensure the long-term sustainability of critical satellite orbits. Given the computational complexity of accurate long-term trajectory propagation for a large number of particles, numerical models usually rely on Monte-Carlo approaches for stochastic conjunction assessment. On the other hand, deterministic methods bear the promise of higher accuracy and can serve to validate stochastic approaches. However, they pose a substantial challenge to computational feasibility. In this work, we present the architecture and proof of concept results for a numerical simulation capable of modeling the long term debris evolution over decades with a deterministic conjunction tracking model. For the simulation, we developed an efficient propagator in modern C++ accounting for Earth's gravitational anomalies, solar radiation pressure, and atmospheric drag. We utilized AutoPAS, a sophisticated particle container, which automatically selects the most efficient data structures and algorithms. We present results from a simulation of 16 024 particles in low-Earth orbit over 20 years. Overall, conjunctions are tracked for predicted collisions and close encounters to allow a detailed study of both. We analyze the runtime and computational cost of the simulation in detail. In summary, the obtained results show that modern computational tools finally enable deterministic conjunction tracking and can serve to validate prior results and build higher-fidelity numerical simulations of the long-term debris environment.