Using Timeliness in Tracking Infections

TL;DR

This paper develops a framework for real-time infection status tracking using optimal testing strategies, accounting for noise, dependencies, and age of information, to improve detection speed and resource allocation.

Contribution

It introduces an analytical model and an alternating minimization algorithm for optimal test rate allocation considering various realistic factors.

Findings

Optimal test rates vary with infection and recovery rates.

Unequal testing improves detection efficiency under limited resources.

Age of information metric captures staleness in infection status updates.

Abstract

We consider real-time timely tracking of infection status (e.g., covid-19) of individuals in a population. In this work, a health care provider wants to detect infected people as well as people who have recovered from the disease as quickly as possible. In order to measure the timeliness of the tracking process, we use the long-term average difference between the actual infection status of the people and their real-time estimate by the health care provider based on the most recent test results. We first find an analytical expression for this average difference for given test rates, infection rates and recovery rates of people. Next, we propose an alternating minimization based algorithm to find the test rates that minimize the average difference. We observe that if the total test rate is limited, instead of testing all members of the population equally, only a portion of the population may be tested in unequal rates calculated based on their infection and recovery rates. Next, we characterize the average difference when the test measurements are erroneous (i.e., noisy). Further, we consider the case where the infection status of individuals may be dependent, which happens when an infected person spreads the disease to another person if they are not detected and isolated by the health care provider. Then, we consider an age of incorrect information based error metric where the staleness metric increases linearly over time as long as the health care provider does not detect the changes in the infection status of the people. In numerical results, we observe that an increased population size increases diversity of people with different infection and recovery rates which may be exploited to spend testing capacity more efficiently. Depending on the health care provider's preferences, test rate allocation can be adjusted to detect either the infected people or the recovered people more quickly.