Optimal Lockdown Management using Short Term COVID-19 Prediction Model

TL;DR

This paper introduces a method for optimal lockdown timing based on short-term COVID-19 case predictions, balancing economic impact and medical resource constraints to inform policy decisions.

Contribution

It presents a novel adaptive short-term prediction model combined with an optimization framework for lockdown management during COVID-19.

Findings

Effective lockdown timing can be optimized using the proposed model.

The approach successfully applied to Delhi's second wave in April 2021.

Balancing economic and health factors improves pandemic response strategies.

Abstract

This paper proposes optimal lockdown management policies based on short-term prediction of active COVID-19 confirmed cases to ensure the availability of critical medical resources. The optimal time to start the lockdown from the current time is obtained after maximizing a cost function considering economic value subject to constraints of availability of medical resources, and maximum allowable value of daily growth rate and Test Positive Ratio. The estimated value of required medical resources is calculated as a function of total active cases. The predicted value of active cases is calculated using an adaptive short-term prediction model. The proposed approach can be easily implementable by a local authority. An optimal lockdown case study for Delhi during the second wave in the month of April 2021 is presented using the proposed formulation.