On a random model of forgetting

TL;DR

This paper rigorously analyzes a random process of set evolution, proving its size concentrates around n/e, and describes its fluctuations and dynamics with advanced probabilistic tools.

Contribution

It provides the first rigorous proof of the process's typical size and detailed asymptotic behavior, including normal fluctuations and Bessel process convergence.

Findings

Size |S(1,n)| is close to n/e with high probability.

Normalized deviation converges to a normal distribution.

Symmetric difference dynamics converge to a three-dimensional Bessel process.

Abstract

Georgiou, Katkov and Tsodyks considered the following random process. Let $x_1,x_2,\ldots $ be an infinite sequence of independent, identically distributed, uniform random points in $[0,1]$. Starting with $S=\{0\}$, the elements $x_k$ join $S$ one by one, in order. When an entering element is larger than the current minimum element of $S$, this minimum leaves $S$. Let $S(1,n)$ denote the content of $S$ after the first $n$ elements $x_k$ join. Simulations suggest that the size $|S(1,n)|$ of $S$ at time $n$ is typically close to $n/e$. Here we first give a rigorous proof that this is indeed the case, and that in fact the symmetric difference of $S(1,n)$ and the set $\{x_k\ge 1-1/e: 1 \leq k \leq n \}$ is of size at most $\tilde{O}(\sqrt n)$ with high probability. Our main result is a more accurate description of the process implying, in particular, that as $n$ tends to infinity $ n^{-1/2}\big( |S(1,n)|-n/e \big) $ converges to a normal random variable with variance $3e^{-2}-e^{-1}$. We further show that the dynamics of the symmetric difference of $S(1,n)$ and the set $\{x_k\ge 1-1/e: 1 \leq k \leq n \}$ converges with proper scaling to a three dimensional Bessel process.