Predicting the Future Performance of the Planned Seismic Network in Mainland China

TL;DR

The paper predicts that China's new broadband seismic network will significantly improve earthquake detection capabilities, reducing the completeness magnitude from 2.7 to 2.0 and enabling better earthquake prediction research.

Contribution

It introduces a Bayesian method to forecast the spatial distribution of seismic detection thresholds for China's expanded network.

Findings

Coverage down to Mc = 2.0 for 99% of China

Threefold increase in detectable earthquakes annually

Enhanced potential for earthquake prediction research

Abstract

The new broadband seismic network in China will increase the number of stations from approximately 950 to 2000. The higher-resolution monitoring of the frequent smaller earthquakes expected inside Mainland China can be quantified via the completeness magnitude (Mc) metric. Using the Bayesian Magnitude of Completeness (BMC) method, we generate the spatial distribution of Mc predicted for the new network, based on the prior model calibrated on the current earthquake catalog (2012 to 2021) and network configuration. If 99% of Mainland China is at present covered down to Mc = 2.7, this threshold will soon fall to Mc = 2.0. This means approximately 3 times more earthquakes available per year. Based on the observation that seismic precursors are most likely to be observed at least at 3 units below the mainshock magnitude, the new seismic network shall achieve the goal of almost total coverage for optimal seismic-based earthquake prediction research.