Estimating Earthquake Early Warning Effectiveness via Blind Zone Sizes: A Case Study of the Planned Seismic Network in Chinese Mainland

TL;DR

This study assesses the effectiveness of China's planned large-scale earthquake early warning system by analyzing blind zone sizes using a network-based model and simulations, highlighting improvements and areas needing further densification.

Contribution

It introduces a theoretical and simulation-based method to evaluate the spatial performance of a large seismic network during its planning phase.

Findings

Densification increases small blind zones from 2% to 22% of Chinese mainland.

Every 1 million RMB investment adds approximately 3,000 km2 of small blind zones.

Key regions require further densification to prevent blind zone expansion due to station failures.

Abstract

The China Earthquake Administration (CEA) has launched an ambitious nationwide earthquake early warning (EEW) system project currently under development, which will include approximately 15,000 seismic stations and be the largest EEW system in the world. The new EEW system is planned to go online at the end of 2023. In approximately 50%, 30% and 20% of Chinese mainland, the inter-station distance will soon be smaller than 50 km, 25 km and 15 km, respectively. The expected effectiveness of this EEW system can be quantified via the metric determined from the radius of the blind zone, which refers to the area near the epicenter where there is insufficient time to issue a warning before the arrival of strong S- and surface waves. This study uses a theoretical network-based method together with Monte Carlo simulation to obtain the spatial distribution of the blind zone radii and their associated uncertainties for the new seismic network based on its configuration. We find that the densified new seismic network is expected to have excellent EEW performance as the area covered by small blind zones with radius less than 30 km increases dramatically from approximately 2% to 22%, that is by 2.4 million km2 inside Chinese mainland. We also find that every 1,000,000 RMB (about 146,000 USD) invested to densify the planned network will lead to an areal increase of 3,000 km2 of small blind zones. Continuing to increase the density of stations in some key regions with blind zone radii ranging from 15 to 40 km is still necessary to control the unexpected expansion of blind zones due to possible (and common) stations failure. Our work provides insights into the expected performance of the upcoming EEW network in Chinese mainland, and our proposed evaluation approach is broadly applicable for predicting the performance of EEW systems during their planning, design, and implementation stages.