A Unified Framework for Campaign Performance Forecasting in Online Display Advertising

TL;DR

This paper presents a unified, interpretable framework for forecasting online display advertising campaign performance, addressing challenges of diverse bidding strategies and fluctuations to improve accuracy and efficiency.

Contribution

It introduces a novel replay-based performance reproduction method combined with multi-task learning for calibration, enhancing forecast accuracy across various bidding types.

Findings

Outperforms baseline models significantly in experiments

Improves forecast accuracy and efficiency

Validated by online A/B testing

Abstract

Advertisers usually enjoy the flexibility to choose criteria like target audience, geographic area and bid price when planning an campaign for online display advertising, while they lack forecast information on campaign performance to optimize delivery strategies in advance, resulting in a waste of labour and budget for feedback adjustments. In this paper, we aim to forecast key performance indicators for new campaigns given any certain criteria. Interpretable and accurate results could enable advertisers to manage and optimize their campaign criteria. There are several challenges for this very task. First, platforms usually offer advertisers various criteria when they plan an advertising campaign, it is difficult to estimate campaign performance unifiedly because of the great difference among bidding types. Furthermore, complex strategies applied in bidding system bring great fluctuation on campaign performance, making estimation accuracy an extremely tough problem. To address above challenges, we propose a novel Campaign Performance Forecasting framework, which firstly reproduces campaign performance on historical logs under various bidding types with a unified replay algorithm, in which essential auction processes like match and rank are replayed, ensuring the interpretability on forecast results. Then, we innovatively introduce a multi-task learning method to calibrate the deviation of estimation brought by hard-to-reproduce bidding strategies in replay. The method captures mixture calibration patterns among related forecast indicators to map the estimated results to the true ones, improving both accuracy and efficiency significantly. Experiment results on a dataset from Taobao.com demonstrate that the proposed framework significantly outperforms other baselines by a large margin, and an online A/B test verifies its effectiveness in the real world.