Shifting Trends of COVID-19 Tweet Sentiment with Respect to Voting Preferences in the 2020 Election Year of the United States

TL;DR

This study analyzes how COVID-19 related tweet sentiments in the US during 2020 correlated with voting preferences, revealing evolving polarization and sentiment shifts between red and blue states over time.

Contribution

It provides a novel analysis of social media sentiment dynamics in relation to political voting patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

Findings

Weak correlation between tweet sentiment and election votes

Sentiments in blue states started more positive but shifted over time

Red states' sentiments became more positive during summer 2020

Abstract

COVID-19 related policies were extensively politicized during the 2020 election year of the United States, resulting in polarizing viewpoints. Twitter users were particularly engaged during the 2020 election year. Here we investigated whether COVID-19 related tweets were associated with the overall election results at the state level during the period leading up to the election day. We observed weak correlations between the average sentiment of COVID-19 related tweets and popular votes in two-week intervals, and the trends gradually become opposite. We then compared the average sentiments of COVID-19 related tweets between states called in favor of Republican (red states) or Democratic parties (blue states). We found that at the beginning of lockdowns sentiments in the blue states were much more positive than those in the red states. However, sentiments in the red states gradually become more positive during the summer of 2020 and persisted until the election day.