Joint Modeling and Prediction of Massive Spatio-Temporal Wildfire Count and Burnt Area Data with the INLA-SPDE Approach

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel joint spatio-temporal modeling approach for wildfire count and burnt area data using INLA-SPDE, capturing dependencies and key environmental drivers, with strong predictive performance.

Contribution

The paper presents a new two-part INLA-SPDE based model for jointly analyzing wildfire counts and burnt areas, incorporating environmental covariates and dependence structures.

Findings

Surface pressure is the main driver for wildfire occurrence.

Surface net solar radiation and pressure influence wildfire counts.

Temperature and evaporation are key for burnt area size.

Abstract

This paper describes the methodology used by the team RedSea in the data competition organized for EVA 2021 conference. We develop a novel two-part model to jointly describe the wildfire count data and burnt area data provided by the competition organizers with covariates. Our proposed methodology relies on the integrated nested Laplace approximation combined with the stochastic partial differential equation (INLA-SPDE) approach. In the first part, a binary non-stationary spatio-temporal model is used to describe the underlying process that determines whether or not there is wildfire at a specific time and location. In the second part, we consider a non-stationary model that is based on log-Gaussian Cox processes for positive wildfire count data, and a non-stationary log-Gaussian model for positive burnt area data. Dependence between the positive count data and positive burnt area data is captured by a shared spatio-temporal random effect. Our two-part modeling approach performs well in terms of the prediction score criterion chosen by the data competition organizers. Moreover, our model results show that surface pressure is the most influential driver for the occurrence of a wildfire, whilst surface net solar radiation and surface pressure are the key drivers for large numbers of wildfires, and temperature and evaporation are the key drivers of large burnt areas.