Mr. Bayes and the classics: a suggested interpretation

TL;DR

This paper reinterprets Thomas Bayes's motivations, suggesting his work on inverse probability was influenced by De Moivre's book and not primarily aimed at countering Hume's arguments against miracles.

Contribution

It offers a new perspective on Bayes's intentions, linking his work to De Moivre's influence and reevaluating the context of his famous essay.

Findings

Bayes's interest in inverse problems was inspired by De Moivre's book.

De Moivre claimed priority in solving the inverse problem.

Richard Price's preface can be seen as a defense of Bayes's contributions.

Abstract

The main hypothesis about Thomas Bayes's intentions to write his famous Essay on probability is that he wanted to refute the arguments of David Hume against the reliability of the occurrence of miracles, published in 1748. In this paper we argue that it was not Bayes's intention to rebut Hume but that his interest on the "inverse problem" came about as result of his study of the second edition of Abraham De Moivre's book, The Doctrine of Chances, published in 1738. A possible communication of Bayes's breakthrough might have annoyed De Moivre, leading to a response written for Bayes in the third edition of De Moivre's book, published in 1756. Among other points, the response claims that De Moivre was the first to solve the mentioned inverse problem. Under this perspective Richard Price's letter, written as preface to Bayes's essay, has a new interpretation, appearing also as a defense of Bayes premiership on a satisfactory or proper solution.