The Legacy of Authoritarianism in a Democracy

TL;DR

This paper investigates the long-term political effects of authoritarian rule in India during the 1970s, showing a decline in dominant party power, increased opposition, and lasting low confidence in politicians.

Contribution

It provides empirical evidence on the enduring political consequences of authoritarianism in a major democracy using multiple causal inference methods.

Findings

Decline in Indian National Congress dominance

Rise in opposition candidates in elections

Persistent low confidence in politicians

Abstract

Recent democratic backsliding and the rise of authoritarian regimes worldwide have rekindled interest in understanding the causes and consequences of such authoritarian rule in democracies. In this paper, I study the long-run political consequences of authoritarianism in the world's largest democracy. Exploiting the unexpected timing of the authoritarian rule imposed in India in the 1970s and using a difference-in-difference (DID), triple difference (DDD), and a regression discontinuity design (RDD) estimation approach, I document a sharp decline in the then-dominant incumbent, the Indian National Congress party's political dominance in subsequent years. I also present evidence that the decline in political dominance was not at the expense of a lower voter turnout rate. Instead, a sharp rise in the number of opposition candidates contesting elections in subsequent years played an important role. Finally, I examine the enduring consequences, revealing that confidence in politicians remains low in states where the draconian policy was high.