Predicting the Exoplanet Yield of the TESS Prime and Extended Missions Through Years 1-7

TL;DR

This paper presents updated simulations predicting the number of exoplanets TESS will detect over its prime and extended missions, incorporating improved models and testing results, estimating a total of over 12,500 planets.

Contribution

The study introduces refined detection models and simulations for TESS's extended missions, providing detailed yield predictions based on improved performance and observational strategies.

Findings

Estimated 4,719±334 planets from Prime Mission data

Predicted 3,707±209 planets from the current Extended Mission

Total predicted TESS yield of approximately 12,519±678 planets

Abstract

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) has discovered $\sim$5000 planets and planet candidates after three and a half years of observations. With a planned second Extended Mission spanning Years 5 - 7 on the horizon, now is the time to revise predictions of the TESS exoplanet yield. We present simulations of the number of detectable planets around 9.4 million AFGKM stars in the TESS Input Catalog Candidate Target List v8.01 through seven years of the TESS mission. Our simulations take advantage of improved models for the photometric performance and temporal window functions. The detection model was also improved by relying on the results of inject-and-recovery testing by the Kepler team. We estimate 4719$\pm$334 planets around these stars should be detectable with data from the Prime Mission alone (Years 1 - 2), and another 3707$\pm$209 planets should be detectable by the end of the current Extended Mission (Years 3 - 4). Based on a proposed pointing scenario for a second Extended Mission (Years 5 - 7), we predict TESS should find a further 4093$\pm$180 planets, bringing the total TESS yield to 12519$\pm$678 planets. We provide our predicted yields as functions of host star spectral type, planet radius, orbital period, follow-up feasibility, and location relative to the habitable zone. We also compare our predictions to the actual Prime Mission yield, finding good agreement