Major Contribution of Halogenated Greenhouse Gases to Global Surface Temperature Change

TL;DR

This study analyzes various climate datasets and models to understand the recent warming trend, highlighting the dominant role of halogenated greenhouse gases and sea-ice loss in global temperature changes since the mid-2000s.

Contribution

It introduces a quantum-physics based model of halogenated GHGs that accurately predicts observed global surface temperature trends, emphasizing their dominant warming effect.

Findings

GLST and SCE stabilized since mid-1990s

GMST plateaued since mid-2000s after natural effects removal

Halogenated GHGs explain observed warming with high accuracy

Abstract

This paper aims to better understand why there was a global warming pause in 2000-2015 and why the global mean surface temperature (GMST) has risen again in recent years. We present and statistically analyze substantial time-series observed datasets of global lower stratospheric temperature (GLST), troposphere-stratosphere temperature climatology, global land surface air temperature, GMST, sea ice extent (SIE) and snow cover extent (SCE), combined with modeled calculations of GLSTs and GMSTs. The observed and analyzed results show that GLST/SCE has stabilized since the mid-1990s with no significant change over the past two and a half decades. Upper stratospheric warming at high latitudes has been observed and GMST or global land surface air temperature has reached a plateau since the mid-2000s with the removal of natural effects. In marked contrast, continued drastic warmings at the coasts of polar regions (particularly Russia and Alaska) are observed and well explained by the sea-ice-loss warming amplification mechanism. The calculated GMSTs by the parameter-free quantum-physics warming model of halogenated greenhouse gases (GHGs) show excellent agreement with the observed GMSTs after the natural El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) and volcanic effects are removed. These results have provided strong evidence for the dominant warming mechanism of anthropogenic halogenated GHGs. The results also call for closer scrutiny of the assumptions made in current climate models.