Seasonal prediction of renewable energy generation in Europe based on four teleconnection indices

TL;DR

This study demonstrates that teleconnection indices can be used to predict seasonal variations in wind and solar energy generation across Europe, aiding in reliable electricity system planning amid climate variability.

Contribution

It introduces a novel approach linking four teleconnection indices to European renewable energy generation, enabling seasonal forecasts at country and regional levels.

Findings

Teleconnection indices correlate with wind and solar anomalies.

Forecast models show positive skill in predicting renewable generation.

The approach reveals co-variability driven by large-scale circulation.

Abstract

With growing amounts of wind and solar power in the electricity mix of many European countries, understanding and predicting variations of renewable energy generation at multiple timescales is crucial to ensure reliable electricity systems. At seasonal scale, the balance between supply and demand is mostly determined by the large-scale atmospheric circulation, which is uncertain due to climate change and natural variability. Here we employ four teleconnection indices, which represent a linkage between atmospheric conditions at widely separated regions, to describe the large-scale circulation at seasonal scale over Europe. For the first time, we relate each of the teleconnections to the wind and solar generation anomalies at country and regional level and we show that dynamical forecasts of the teleconnection indices allow predicting renewable generation at country level with positive skill levels. This model unveils the co-variability of wind and solar generation in European countries through its common dependence on the general circulation and the state of the teleconnections.