Renewable levelized cost of energy available for export: An indicator for exploring global renewable energy trade potential

TL;DR

This paper introduces new metrics to evaluate the potential for global renewable energy trade by assessing regional resource availability, costs, and demand, aiding in identifying key importers and exporters.

Contribution

It presents two novel metrics, RLCOE_Ex and PEEV, for assessing renewable energy export potential without energy system modeling, applied to 165 countries.

Findings

Identifies major renewable energy exporters like the US and China.

Highlights countries with high import potential such as South Korea and Japan.

Validates metrics through comprehensive energy system models.

Abstract

Renewable energy resources are widely available, yet they are unevenly distributed globally. In a renewable future, countries lacking high-quality renewable resources may choose to import energy from other countries. To assess the resource-dependent and techno-economic basis for global renewable energy trade and identify potential importers and exporters, this study introduces two new metrics: Renewable Levelized Cost of Energy available for Export (RLCOE_Ex) and Potential Energy Export Volume (PEEV). These metrics are computed based on regional resource potential, domestic energy demand and varying financial costs across countries, without the need for any energy system modeling. By applying these two metrics to 165 countries/regions, we identify countries with significant potential for exporting renewable energy (e.g., the US, China) and those that lack the domestic resources to satisfy demand (e.g., South Korea, Japan). The RLCOE_Ex and PEEV metrics are validated through a separate analysis, employing a comprehensive energy system model for each country/region.