Investigating the detection rates and inference of gravitational-wave and radio emission from black hole neutron star mergers

TL;DR

This paper predicts detection rates of electromagnetic and gravitational-wave signals from black hole neutron star mergers, emphasizing the importance of future detector sensitivity and multimessenger analysis for improved parameter inference.

Contribution

It introduces a simulation framework for BHNS merger detection rates and demonstrates how multimessenger data enhances parameter estimation, highlighting uncertainties from black hole spin distribution.

Findings

Detection rates are low with current GW detectors.

Future detectors like Einstein Telescope will significantly improve detection chances.

Multimessenger analysis allows simultaneous inference of binary and EM parameters.

Abstract

Black hole neutron star (BHNS) mergers have recently been detected through their gravitational-wave (GW) emission. BHNS mergers could also produce electromagnetic (EM) emission as a short gamma-ray burst (sGRB), and/or an sGRB afterglow upon interaction with the circummerger medium. Here, we make predictions for the expected detection rates with the Square Kilometre Array Phase 1 (SKA1) of sGRB radio afterglows associated with BHNS mergers. We also investigate the benefits of a multimessenger analysis in inferring the properties of the merging binary. We simulate a population of BHNS mergers and estimate their sGRB afterglow flux to obtain the detection rates with SKA1. We investigate how this rate depends on the GW detector sensitivity, the primary black hole (BH) spin, and the neutron star equation of state. We then perform a multimessenger Bayesian inference study on a fiducial BHNS merger. We simulate its sGRB afterglow and GW emission and take systematic errors into account. The expected rates of a combined GW and radio detection with the current generation GW detectors are likely low. Due to the much increased sensitivity of future GW detectors like the Einstein Telescope, the chances of an sGRB localisation and radio detection increase substantially. The unknown distribution of the BH spin has a big influence on the detection rates, however, and it is a large source of uncertainty. Furthermore, for our fiducial BHNS merger we are able to infer both the binary source parameters as well as the parameters of the sGRB afterglow simultaneously when combining the GW and radio data. The radio data provides useful extra information on the binary parameters such as the mass ratio but this is limited by the systematic errors involved. A better understanding of the systematics will further increase the amount of information on the binary parameters that can be extracted from this radio data.