Flow Redirection for Epidemic Reaction-DIffusion Control

TL;DR

This paper presents a method to control epidemic spread on directed, heterogeneous networks by redirecting flows through optimized loss functions, effectively reducing the basic reproduction number and final epidemic size.

Contribution

It introduces a flow redirection control approach using loss functions based on the basic reproduction number for epidemic reaction-diffusion models on complex networks.

Findings

Control is effective across various network topologies.

Reproduction number loss outperforms simpler loss functions.

Control reduces epidemic final size in experiments.

Abstract

We show we can control an epidemic reaction-diffusion on a directed, and heterogeneous, network by redirecting the flows, thanks to the optimisation of well-designed loss functions, in particular the basic reproduction number of the model. We provide a final size relation linking the basic reproduction number to the epidemic final sizes, for diffusions around a reference diffusion with basic reproduction number less than 1. Experimentally, we show control is possible for different topologies, network heterogeneity levels, and speeds of diffusion. Our experimental results highlight the relevance of the basic reproduction number loss, compared to more straightforward losses.