Reconciling Trends in U.S. Male Earnings Volatility: Results from Survey and Administrative Data
Robert Moffitt, John Abowd, Christopher Bollinger, Michael Carr,, Charles Hokayem, Kevin McKinney, Emily Wiemers, Sisi Zhang, James Ziliak

TL;DR
This study compares survey and administrative data to analyze trends in U.S. male earnings volatility over the past 30 years, finding little evidence of significant long-term changes when data differences are properly addressed.
Contribution
It reconciles conflicting findings on earnings volatility trends by systematically analyzing multiple data sources with consistent methods.
Findings
Most data series show no significant long-term trend in earnings volatility.
One data series (PSID) indicates a small positive trend.
Administrative data from 1998-2011 shows minimal change in volatility.
Abstract
There is a large literature on earnings and income volatility in labor economics, household finance, and macroeconomics. One strand of that literature has studied whether individual earnings volatility has risen or fallen in the U.S. over the last several decades. There are strong disagreements in the empirical literature on this important question, with some studies showing upward trends, some showing downward trends, and some showing no trends. Some studies have suggested that the differences are the result of using flawed survey data instead of more accurate administrative data. This paper summarizes the results of a project attempting to reconcile these findings with four different data sets and six different data series--three survey and three administrative data series, including two which match survey respondent data to their administrative data. Using common specifications,…
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Taxonomy
TopicsFinancial Literacy, Pension, Retirement Analysis · Fiscal Policies and Political Economy · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
