Potential destination discovery for low predictability individuals based on knowledge graph

TL;DR

This paper introduces a knowledge graph-based framework for discovering potential destinations of low predictability travelers, improving destination prediction accuracy by modeling trip relationships and embeddings.

Contribution

The paper proposes a novel knowledge graph framework (PDPFKG) with a customized embedding algorithm for potential destination discovery of unpredictable travelers.

Findings

Outperforms baseline methods significantly

Strong consistency with traveler behavior

Effective in modeling trip relationships

Abstract

Travelers may travel to locations they have never visited, which we call potential destinations of them. Especially under a very limited observation, travelers tend to show random movement patterns and usually have a large number of potential destinations, which make them difficult to handle for mobility prediction (e.g., destination prediction). In this paper, we develop a new knowledge graph-based framework (PDPFKG) for potential destination discovery of low predictability travelers by considering trip association relationships between them. We first construct a trip knowledge graph (TKG) to model the trip scenario by entities (e.g., travelers, destinations and time information) and their relationships, in which we introduce the concept of private relationship for complexity reduction. Then a modified knowledge graph embedding algorithm is implemented to optimize the overall graph representation. Based on the trip knowledge graph embedding model (TKGEM), the possible ranking of individuals' unobserved destinations to be chosen in the future can be obtained by calculating triples' distance. Empirically. PDPFKG is tested using an anonymous vehicular dataset from 138 intersections equipped with video-based vehicle detection systems in Xuancheng city, China. The results show that (i) the proposed method significantly outperforms baseline methods, and (ii) the results show strong consistency with traveler behavior in choosing potential destinations. Finally, we provide a comprehensive discussion of the innovative points of the methodology.