From Rough to Multifractal volatility: the log S-fBM model

TL;DR

This paper introduces the log S-fBM model that unifies multifractal and rough volatility models, discusses its properties, proposes a robust estimation method, and applies it to empirical data revealing universal features in stock volatility.

Contribution

The paper develops the log S-fBM model connecting multifractal and rough volatility frameworks, and introduces a reliable GMM estimation method for empirical analysis.

Findings

Stock indices have H around 0.1, indicating rough volatility.

Individual stocks often have H close to 0, fitting the multifractal model.

The intermittency coefficient λ² shows universal behavior across stocks and indices.

Abstract

We introduce a family of random measures $M_{H,T} (d t)$, namely log S-fBM, such that, for $H>0$, $M_{H,T}(d t) = e^{\omega_{H,T}(t)} d t$ where $\omega_{H,T}(t)$ is a Gaussian process that can be considered as a stationary version of an $H$-fractional Brownian motion. Moreover, when $H \to 0$, one has $M_{H,T}(d t) \rightarrow {\widetilde M}_{T}(d t)$ (in the weak sense) where ${\widetilde M}_{T}(d t)$ is the celebrated log-normal multifractal random measure (MRM). Thus, this model allows us to consider, within the same framework, the two popular classes of multifractal ($H = 0$) and rough volatility ($0<H < 1/2$) models. The main properties of the log S-fBM are discussed and their estimation issues are addressed. We notably show that the direct estimation of $H$ from the scaling properties of $\ln(M_{H,T}([t, t+\tau]))$, at fixed $\tau$, can lead to strongly over-estimating the value of $H$. We propose a better GMM estimation method which is shown to be valid in the high-frequency asymptotic regime. When applied to a large set of empirical volatility data, we observe that stock indices have values around $H=0.1$ while individual stocks are characterized by values of $H$ that can be very close to $0$ and thus well described by a MRM. We also bring evidence that unlike the log-volatility variance $\nu^2$ whose estimation appears to be poorly reliable (though used widely in the rough volatility literature), the estimation of the so-called "intermittency coefficient" $\lambda^2$, which is the product of $\nu^2$ and the Hurst exponent $H$, appears to be far more reliable leading to values that seem to be universal for respectively all individual stocks and all stock indices.