Ensemble of Opinion Dynamics Models to Understand the Role of the Undecided in the Vaccination Debate
Jacopo Lenti, Giancarlo Ruffo

TL;DR
This paper compares three opinion dynamics models to understand how the undecided population influences the vaccination debate on social networks, revealing anti-vax opinions spread more effectively and suggesting network strategies to contain misinformation.
Contribution
It introduces and compares three novel models capturing different undecided behaviors in vaccination debates, providing insights into opinion spread and containment strategies.
Findings
Anti-vax opinions spread more than pro-vax despite smaller initial size.
Undecided individuals are mainly located at the core of the social network.
Adding links in the network helps contain anti-vax opinions.
Abstract
We present three models used to describe the recruitment of the undecided population by pro-vax and no-vax factions. Starting from real-world data of Facebook pages, we compare three opinion dynamics models that catch different behaviours of the undecided population. The first one is a variation of the SIS model, where undecided position is considered indifferent. Neutrals can be "infected" by one of the two extreme factions, joining their side, and they "recover" when they lose interest in the debate and go back to neutrality. The second model is a three parties Voters model: neutral pages represent a centrist position. They lean their original ideas, that are different from both the other parties. The last is the Bilingual model adapted to the vaccination debate: neutral individuals are in agreement with both pro-, ad anti-vax factions, with a position of compromise between the…
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Taxonomy
TopicsOpinion Dynamics and Social Influence · Misinformation and Its Impacts · Media Influence and Politics
