Stabilising millennial oscillations in large-scale ocean circulation with a delayed feedback due to a circumpolar current

TL;DR

This paper demonstrates that a circumpolar current can induce stable millennial oscillations in large-scale ocean circulation, using both Earth system and simplified box models, providing insights into past climate variability.

Contribution

It introduces a novel mechanism where a circumpolar current causes stable oscillations in ocean circulation, supported by bifurcation analysis in both models.

Findings

Millennial oscillations occur in the Earth system model with a circumpolar current.

A simple box model reproduces the bifurcation structure of the Earth system model.

Changing Antarctic circumpolar current speed influences the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

Abstract

The global ocean circulation plays a pivotal role in the regulation of the Earth's climate. The specific pattern and strength of circulation also determines how carbon and nutrients are cycled and via the resulting distribution of dissolved oxygen, where habitats suitable for marine animals occur. However, evidence from both geological data and models suggests that state transitions in circulation patterns have occurred in the past. Understanding the controls on marine environmental conditions and biodiversity requires a full appreciation of the nature and drivers of such transitions. Here we present stable millennial oscillations of meridional overturning circulation in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, cGENIE, that appear to only occur in the presence of a circumpolar current. To demonstrate that a circumpolar current can act as a driver of stable oscillations, we adapt a simple ocean box model to include a delayed feedback to represent the effect of a circumpolar current on meridional overturning circulation. We investigate the millennial oscillatory solutions that arise in the box model by bifurcation analysis and show that the model can reproduce the same bifurcation structure observed in the Earth system model. Our results provide new insights into the nature of oscillations that could have occurred under certain continental configurations in the geological past, and also highlight the potential influence of the changing Antarctic circumpolar current speed on the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.