COVID-19 impact on the international trade

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the impact of COVID-19 on international trade flows using Google matrix methods, revealing significant shifts and reorganization in trade networks during 2020.

Contribution

It introduces a novel application of PageRank, CheiRank, and reduced Google matrix algorithms to analyze global trade networks, providing new insights beyond traditional import-export metrics.

Findings

Significant trade flow reorganization in 2020 due to COVID-19

New trade balance metrics show pandemic-induced perturbations

Trade network rankings change notably during the pandemic year

Abstract

Using the United Nations Comtrade database, we perform the Google matrix analysis of the multiproduct World Trade Network (WTN) for the years 2018-2020 comprising the emergence of the COVID-19 as a global pandemic. The applied algorithms -- the PageRank, the CheiRank and the reduced Google matrix -- take into account the multiplicity of the WTN links providing new insights on the international trade comparing to the usual import-export analysis. These algorithms establish new rankings and trade balances of countries and products considering every countries on equal grounds, independently of their wealth, and every products on the basis of their relative exchanged volumes. In comparison with the pre-COVID-19 period, significant changes in these metrics occur for the year 2020 highlighting a major rewiring of the international trade flows induced by the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. We define a new PageRank-CheiRank product trade balance, either export or import oriented, which is significantly perturbed by the pandemic.