Sensitivity of Single-Pulse Radar Detection to Aircraft Pose Uncertainties

TL;DR

This paper develops a linearized method to quantify how aircraft pose uncertainties affect the probability of detection in radar systems, aiding more robust mission planning.

Contribution

It introduces a linearization approach to incorporate aircraft pose uncertainty into radar detection probability models, which was not addressed in prior deterministic path planning methods.

Findings

Linearized models accurately predict detection probability variability

Monte Carlo simulations validate the linearization approach

Detection probability is highly sensitive to aircraft pose uncertainties

Abstract

Mission planners for aircraft that operate in radar detection environments are often concerned the probability of detection. The probability of detection is a nonlinear function of the aircraft pose and radar position. Current path planning techniques for this application assume that the aircraft pose is deterministic. In practice, however, the aircraft pose is estimated using a navigation filter and therefore contains uncertainty. The uncertainty in the aircraft pose induces uncertainty in the probability of detection, but this phenomenon is generally not considered when path planning. This paper provides a method for combining aircraft pose uncertainty with single-pulse radar detection models to aid mission planning efforts. The method linearizes the expression for the probability of detection and three radar cross section models. The linearized models are then used to determine the variability of the probability of detection induced by uncertainty in the aircraft pose. The results of this paper validate the linearization using Monte Carlo analysis and explore the sensitivity of the probability of detection to aircraft pose uncertainty.