Towards predicting COVID-19 infection waves: A random-walk Monte Carlo simulation approach

TL;DR

This paper introduces a 2D random-walk Monte Carlo simulation method to predict multiple COVID-19 infection waves, capturing complex epidemic dynamics without differential equations, aiding in pandemic mitigation planning.

Contribution

The study presents a novel stochastic simulation approach that accurately predicts multiple COVID-19 waves across different countries, extending beyond traditional single-peak models.

Findings

Successfully predicts secondary and tertiary infection waves

Captures observed infection growth rates in multiple countries

Provides a simple tool for pandemic mitigation planning

Abstract

Phenomenological and deterministic models are often used for the estimation of transmission parameters in an epidemic and for the prediction of its growth trajectory. Such analyses are usually based on single peak outbreak dynamics. In light of the present COVID-19 pandemic, there is a pressing need to better understand observed epidemic growth with multiple peak structures, preferably using first-principles methods. Along the lines of our previous work [Physica A 574, 126014 (2021)], here we apply 2D random-walk Monte Carlo calculations to better understand COVID-19 spread through contact interactions. Lockdown scenarios and all other control interventions are imposed through mobility restrictions and a regulation of the infection rate within the stochastically interacting population. The susceptible, infected and recovered populations are tracked over time, with daily infection rates obtained without recourse to the solution of differential equations. The simulations were carried out for population densities corresponding to four countries, India, Serbia, South Africa and USA. In all cases our results capture the observed infection growth rates. More importantly, the simulation model is shown to predict secondary and tertiary waves of infections with reasonable accuracy. This predictive nature of multiple wave structures provides a simple and effective tool that may be useful in planning mitigation strategies during the present pandemic.