Upward Lightning at the Gaisberg Tower: Initiation Mechanism and Flash Type and the Atmospheric Influence

TL;DR

This study uses machine learning to analyze atmospheric conditions that favor self-initiated and undetectable upward lightning at tall structures, enhancing understanding of lightning initiation mechanisms and risks.

Contribution

It introduces a random forest model combining tower measurements with atmospheric reanalysis data to predict upward lightning types and their atmospheric triggers.

Findings

Height of the -10°C isotherm influences self-initiated lightning

Temperature and CAPE are significant atmospheric variables

Undetectable upward lightning correlates with absence of nearby lightning

Abstract

Upward lightning is much rarer than downward lightning and requires tall ($100+$~m) structures to initiate. It may be either triggered by other lightning discharges or completely self-initiated. While conventional lightning location systems reliably detect downward lightning, they miss a specific flash type of upward lightning that consists only of a continuous current. Globally, only few specially instrumented towers can detect this flash type. The proliferation of wind turbines in combination with large damage from upward lightning necessitates an improved understanding under which conditions the self-initiated and the undetected subtype of upward lightning occur. To find larger-scale meteorological conditions favorable for self-initiated and undetectable upward lightning, this study uses a random forest machine learning model. It combines direct measurements at the specially instrumented tower at Gaisberg mountain in Austria with explanatory variables from larger-scale atmospheric reanalysis data (ERA5). Atmospheric variables reliably explain whether upward lightning is self-initiated by the tower or triggered by other lightning discharges. The most important variable is the height of the $-10~^\circ$C isotherm above the tall structure: the closer it is the higher is the probability of self-initiated upward lightning. Two-meter temperature and the amount of CAPE are also important. For the occurrence of upward lightning undetectable by lightning location systems, this study finds a strong relationship to the absence of lightning in the vicinity.