A two-strain reaction-diffusion malaria model with seasonality and vector-bias

TL;DR

This paper develops a periodic reaction-diffusion model for two malaria strains considering seasonality and vector-bias, analyzing their transmission dynamics, coexistence, and competitive outcomes.

Contribution

It introduces a novel two-strain reaction-diffusion model incorporating seasonality and vector-bias, with new insights into invasion thresholds and coexistence conditions.

Findings

Disease extinction when both reproduction numbers are below one.

Persistence of sensitive or resistant strains depending on their reproduction numbers.

Coexistence and oscillation phenomena observed under certain conditions.

Abstract

To investigate the combined effects of drug resistance, seasonality and vector-bias, we formulate a periodic two-strain reaction-diffusion model. It is a competitive system for resistant and sensitive strains, but the single-strain subsystem is cooperative. We derive the basic reproduction number $\mathcal {R}_i$ and the invasion reproduction number $\mathcal {\hat{R}}_i$ for strain $i~(i=1,2)$, and establish the transmission dynamics in terms of these four quantities. More precisely, (i) if $\mathcal {R}_1<1$ and $\mathcal{R}_2<1$, then the disease is extinct; (ii) if $\mathcal {R}_1>1>\mathcal{R}_2$ ($\mathcal {R}_2>1>\mathcal{R}_1$), then the sensitive (resistant) strains are persistent, while the resistant (sensitive) strains die out; (iii) if $\mathcal {R}_i>1$ and $\mathcal {\hat{R}}_i>1~(i=1,2)$, then two strains are coexistent and periodic oscillation phenomenon is observed. We also study the asymptotic behavior of the basic reproduction number with respect to small and large diffusion coefficients. Numerically, we demonstrate the phenomena of coexistence and competitive exclusion for two strains and explore the influences of seasonality and vector-bias on disease spreading.