Predictability of warm and cold winters: Assessment of El Ni\~no effects in the North Eurasian regions

TL;DR

This study investigates how El Niño phenomena influence the frequency and predictability of warm and cold winters in North Eurasia using long-term data analysis.

Contribution

It assesses the impact of different El Niño phases on winter temperature extremes and estimates their potential predictability in North Eurasian regions.

Findings

El Niño phases significantly affect winter temperature extremes.

Potential predictability of anomalous winters varies with El Niño type.

Long-term data reveals patterns linking El Niño to winter climate anomalies.

Abstract

Frequency of warm and cold winters in the North Eurasian regions is analyzed from long-term data, depending on El Nino phenomena of different types. Frequencies of extremely warm and extremely cold winters for North Eurasian regions in different phases of El Ni\~no phenomena are compared. Potential predictability of anomalous winters in the El Ni\~no, La Ni\~na and neutral phases is estimated.