Interplay between risk perception, behaviour, and COVID-19 spread

TL;DR

This study explores how the balance of mandatory NPIs and voluntary health behaviors influence COVID-19 dynamics, emphasizing the importance of optimal intervention levels for effective pandemic control and vaccination strategies.

Contribution

It provides a detailed analysis of how different NPI levels affect voluntary behaviors and disease spread, offering insights for designing effective intervention policies.

Findings

Weak NPIs lead to high COVID-19 surges before behavioral response

Strong NPIs cause rebound waves after restrictions are lifted

Moderate NPIs combined with high vaccination rates effectively control the virus

Abstract

Pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been crucial for controlling COVID-19. They are complemented by voluntary health-protective behaviour, building a complex interplay between risk perception, behaviour, and disease spread. We studied how voluntary health-protective behaviour and vaccination willingness impact the long-term dynamics. We analysed how different levels of mandatory NPIs determine how individuals use their leeway for voluntary actions. If mandatory NPIs are too weak, COVID-19 incidence will surge, implying high morbidity and mortality before individuals react; if they are too strong, one expects a rebound wave once restrictions are lifted, challenging the transition to endemicity. Conversely, moderate mandatory NPIs give individuals time and room to adapt their level of caution, mitigating disease spread effectively. When complemented with high vaccination rates, this also offers a robust way to limit the impacts of the Omicron variant of concern. Altogether, our work highlights the importance of appropriate mandatory NPIs to maximise the impact of individual voluntary actions in pandemic control.