Optimizing Vaccine Allocation Strategies in Pandemic Outbreaks: An Optimal Control Approach

TL;DR

This paper develops an optimization framework using an age-dependent SEIR model to determine optimal COVID-19 vaccine allocation strategies that balance societal objectives like minimizing infections or fatalities.

Contribution

It introduces a novel dynamic vaccine allocation model incorporating age-specific immunity and infectiousness, solved via nonlinear programming for real-world application.

Findings

Minimizing infections favors delaying second doses.

Prioritizing elderly reduces fatalities.

Different objectives lead to distinct vaccination strategies.

Abstract

Since early 2020, the world has been dealing with a raging pandemic outbreak: COVID-19. A year later, vaccines have become accessible, but in limited quantities, so that governments needed to devise a strategy to decide which part of the population to prioritize when assigning the available doses, and how to manage the interval between doses for multi-dose vaccines. In this paper, we present an optimization framework to address the dynamic double-dose vaccine allocation problem whereby the available vaccine doses must be administered to different age-groups to minimize specific societal objectives. In particular, we first identify an age-dependent Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemic model including an extension capturing partially and fully vaccinated people, whereby we account for age-dependent immunity and infectiousness levels together with disease severity. Second, we leverage our model to frame the dynamic age-dependent vaccine allocation problem for different societal objectives, such as the minimization of infections or fatalities, and solve it with nonlinear programming techniques. Finally, we carry out a numerical case study with real-world data from The Netherlands. Our results show how different societal objectives can significantly alter the optimal vaccine allocation strategy. For instance, we find that minimizing the overall number of infections results in delaying second doses, whilst to minimize fatalities it is important to fully vaccinate the elderly first.