Double Standards: The Implications of Near Certainty Drone Strikes in Pakistan
Shyam Raman, Paul Lushenko, Sarah Kreps

TL;DR
This study empirically evaluates the impact of President Obama's near certainty drone strike policy in Pakistan, revealing significant reductions in civilian casualties and increased strike precision, with notable economic implications.
Contribution
It provides the first empirical estimate of the policy's effects on civilian casualties and strike accuracy using a regression discontinuity design.
Findings
Reduced civilian casualties by approximately 12 per month
Increased strike precision to target only intended individuals
Adverted around 320 civilian casualties with economic value estimates
Abstract
In 2013, U.S. President Barack Obama announced a policy to minimize civilian casualties following drone strikes in undeclared theaters of war. The policy calibrated Obamas approval of strikes against the near certainty of no civilian casualties. Scholars do not empirically study the merits of Obamas policy. Rather, they rely on descriptive trends for civilian casualties in Pakistan to justify competing claims for the policys impact. We provide a novel estimate for the impact of Obamas policy for civilian casualties in Pakistan following U.S. drone strikes. We employ a regression discontinuity design to estimate the effect of Obamas policy for civilian casualties, strike precision, and adverted civilian casualties. We find a discontinuity in civilian casualties approximately two years before Obamas policy announcement, corroborating our primary research including interviews with senior…
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Taxonomy
TopicsInsurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management · Global Health Care Issues · Agricultural risk and resilience
