Estimating economic severity of Air Traffic Flow Management regulations

TL;DR

This paper introduces a new metric for assessing the economic risk of air traffic management regulations by analyzing historical data and applying machine learning, aiding strategic decision-making for air navigation and users.

Contribution

It defines an economic risk indicator for airspace elements based on delay costs, utilizing machine learning for parameter estimation and risk classification.

Findings

The metric quantifies economic risk of airspace elements.

Machine learning models predict delay costs with measurable accuracy.

Economic severity classifications assist strategic planning.

Abstract

The development of trajectory-based operations and the rolling network operations plan in European air traffic management network implies a move towards more collaborative, strategic flight planning. This opens up the possibility for inclusion of additional information in the collaborative decision-making process. With that in mind, we define the indicator for the economic risk of network elements (e.g., sectors or airports) as the expected costs that the elements impose on airspace users due to Air Traffic Flow Management (ATFM) regulations. The definition of the indicator is based on the analysis of historical ATFM regulations data, that provides an indication of the risk of accruing delay. This risk of delay is translated into a monetary risk for the airspace users, creating the new metric of the economic risk of a given airspace element. We then use some machine learning techniques to find the parameters leading to this economic risk. The metric is accompanied by an indication of the accuracy of the delay cost prediction model. Lastly, the economic risk is transformed into a qualitative economic severity classification. The economic risks and consequently economic severity can be estimated for different temporal horizons and time periods providing an indicator which can be used by Air Navigation Service Providers to identify areas which might need the implementation of strategic measures (e.g., resectorisation or capacity provision change), and by Airspace Users to consider operation of routes which use specific airspace regions.