Retrodictive Modelling of Modern Rugby Union: Extension of Bradley-Terry to Multiple Outcomes

TL;DR

This paper extends the Bradley-Terry model to handle multiple outcomes, including bonus points, for rugby union, providing a principled approach to compare teams with complex scoring systems.

Contribution

It introduces a generalized retrodictive model for sports with multiple outcomes, specifically applied to modern rugby union with bonus points.

Findings

Model effectively incorporates bonus points and multiple outcomes.

Applied to the Daily Mail Trophy to evaluate current scoring rules.

Provides a flexible framework for sports outcome modeling.

Abstract

Frequently in sporting competitions it is desirable to compare teams based on records of varying schedule strength. Methods have been developed for sports where the result outcomes are win, draw, or loss. In this paper those ideas are extended to account for any finite multiple outcome result set. A principle-based motivation is supplied and an implementation presented for modern rugby union, where bonus points are awarded for losing within a certain score margin and for scoring a certain number of tries. A number of variants are discussed including the constraining assumptions that are implied by each. The model is applied to assess the current rules of the Daily Mail Trophy, a national schools tournament in England and Wales.