Artificial Intelligence and Design of Experiments for Assessing Security of Electricity Supply: A Review and Strategic Outlook

TL;DR

This paper reviews the integration of artificial intelligence and design of experiments in energy system modeling to improve security assessments amid increasing complexity and uncertainty in electricity supply.

Contribution

It systematically synthesizes interdisciplinary methods, highlighting AI applications in security assessment and proposing a new methodological pipeline for energy system analysis.

Findings

Identification of AI-based metamodeling techniques for complex security models

Highlighting AI applications in forecasting storage dispatch and component availability

Proposing a new methodological pipeline for security assessment

Abstract

Assessing the effects of the energy transition and liberalization of energy markets on resource adequacy is an increasingly important and demanding task. The rising complexity in energy systems requires adequate methods for energy system modeling leading to increased computational requirements. Furthermore, with complexity, uncertainty increases likewise calling for probabilistic assessments and scenario analyses. To adequately and efficiently address these various requirements, new methods from the field of data science are needed to accelerate current methods. With our systematic literature review, we want to close the gap between the three disciplines (1) assessment of security of electricity supply, (2) artificial intelligence, and (3) design of experiments. For this, we conduct a large-scale quantitative review on selected fields of application and methods and make a synthesis that relates the different disciplines to each other. Among other findings, we identify metamodeling of complex security of electricity supply models using AI methods and applications of AI-based methods for forecasts of storage dispatch and (non-)availabilities as promising fields of application that have not sufficiently been covered, yet. We end with deriving a new methodological pipeline for adequately and efficiently addressing the present and upcoming challenges in the assessment of security of electricity supply.