Passenger Network Ridership Model Through a BRT System, the case of TransMilenio in Bogot\'a

TL;DR

This paper develops a ridership model for a BRT system using fare collection data lacking exit info, validated by comparing bus occupation on two specific days in Bogote1.

Contribution

It introduces a novel individual trajectory-based ridership model for BRT systems using limited fare data, applicable to systems without exit station info.

Findings

Model accurately estimates bus occupation levels.

Validation shows consistent occupation patterns across different days.

Provides insights into passenger flow dynamics in BRT systems.

Abstract

We present a ridership model of individual trajectories of users within a public transport network for which there are several different routes between origin and destiny and for which the automatic fare collection data does not include information about the exit station; only card identification and time of entry into the system. This model is implemented in the case of the Troncal component of TransMilenio, the BRT system that is the backbone of public transport in Bogot\'a. The granularity of the data allows to identify the occupation of every bus within the system at any particular day. As a validation, we compare the average bus occupation of two particular days, 17 of May of 2020 and the 1 of December of 2020.