Atmospheric Density Model Optimization and Spacecraft Orbit Prediction Improvements Based on Q-Sat Orbit Data

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel orbit prediction method using Q-Sat data to decouple atmospheric density and drag coefficient estimation, significantly improving low-earth orbit prediction accuracy over traditional methods.

Contribution

The paper presents a new approach employing Q-Sat data for atmospheric density and drag coefficient decoupling, enhancing orbit prediction accuracy for low-earth orbit spacecraft.

Findings

24-hour orbit prediction accuracy improved by about 171 meters

14-day averaged 24-hour prediction precision increased by approximately 70 meters

Method outperforms legacy correction-prediction strategies using GOCE data

Abstract

Atmospheric drag calculation error greatly reduce the low-earth orbit spacecraft trajectory prediction fidelity. To solve the issue, the "correction - prediction" strategy is usually employed. In the method, one parameter is fixed and other parameters are revised by inverting spacecraft orbit data. However, based on a single spacecraft data, the strategy usually performs poorly as parameters in drag force calculation are coupled with each other, which result in convoluted errors. A gravity field recovery and atmospheric density detection satellite, Q-Sat, developed by xxxxx Lab at xxx University, is launched on August 6th, 2020. The satellite is designed to be spherical for a constant drag coefficient regardless of its attitude. An orbit prediction method for low-earth orbit spacecraft with employment of Q-Sat data is proposed in present paper for decoupling atmospheric density and drag coefficient identification. For the first step, by using a dynamic approach-based inversion, several empirical atmospheric density models are revised based on Q-Sat orbit data. Depending on the performs, one of the revised atmospheric density model would be selected for the next step in which the same inversion is employed for drag coefficient identification for a low-earth orbit operating spacecraft whose orbit needs to be predicted. Finally, orbit prediction is conducted by extrapolation with the dynamic parameters in the previous steps. Tests are carried out with the proposed method by using a GOCE satellite 15-day continuous orbit data. Compared with legacy "correction - prediction" method in which only GOCE data is employed, the accuracy of the 24-hour orbit prediction is improved by about 171m the highest for the proposed method. 14-day averaged 24-hour prediction precision is elevated by approximately 70m.