Flood Inflow Forecast Using L2-norm Ensemble Weighting Sea Surface Feature

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel sea surface feature-based weighting method for flood inflow forecasting, improving predictor stability and accuracy using ensemble models and dimensionality reduction techniques.

Contribution

It proposes a new ocean feature vector derived from sea surface images and integrates it into ensemble regression models for dam inflow prediction.

Findings

Weights contribute to predictor stability.

Improved forecast accuracy over historical data.

Effective application to Japanese dam inflow data.

Abstract

It is important to forecast dam inflow for flood damage mitigation. The hydrograph provides critical information such as the start time, peak level, and volume. Particularly, dam management requires a 6-h lead time of the dam inflow forecast based on a future hydrograph. The authors propose novel target inflow weights to create an ocean feature vector extracted from the analyzed images of the sea surface. We extracted 4,096 elements of the dimension vector in the fc6 layer of the pre-trained VGG16 network. Subsequently, we reduced it to three dimensions of t-SNE. Furthermore, we created the principal component of the sea temperature weights using PCA. We found that these weights contribute to the stability of predictor importance by numerical experiments. As base regression models, we calibrate the least squares with kernel expansion, the quantile random forest minimized out-of bag error, and the support vector regression with a polynomial kernel. When we compute the predictor importance, we visualize the stability of each variable importance introduced by our proposed weights, compared with other results without weights. We apply our method to a dam at Kanto region in Japan and focus on the trained term from 2007 to 2018, with a limited flood term from June to October. We test the accuracy over the 2019 flood term. Finally, we present the applied results and further statistical learning for unknown flood forecast.