Partial tipping in a spatially heterogeneous world

TL;DR

This paper investigates how spatial heterogeneity in climate models can lead to partial tipping, where only parts of the system reorganize, potentially reducing overall system impact.

Contribution

It introduces the concept of partial tipping in spatially extended models, showing how heterogeneity influences stability and the nature of tipping points.

Findings

Partial tipping states depend on system size and heterogeneity.

Tipping can cause localized reorganization rather than full system change.

Spatial interfaces determine coexistence of different states.

Abstract

Many climate subsystems are thought to be susceptible to tipping - and some might be close to a tipping point. The general belief and intuition, based on simple conceptual models of tipping elements, is that tipping leads to reorganization of the full (sub)system. Here, we explore tipping in conceptual, but spatially extended and spatially heterogenous models. These are extensions of conceptual models taken from all sorts of climate system components on multiple spatial scales. By analysis of the bifurcation structure of such systems, special stable equilibrium states are revealed: coexistence states with part of the spatial domain in one state, and part in another, with a spatial interface between these regions. These coexistence states critically depend on the size and the spatial heterogeneity of the (sub)system. In particular, in these systems a tipping point might lead to a partial tipping of the full (sub)system, in which only part of the spatial domain undergoes reorganization, limiting the impact of these events on the system's functioning.